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East of #Ukraine, is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

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There is no doubt that the coronavirus pandemic has moved far aside all other topics of international and regional political agenda. These days we hear very little about the situation in Syria, Yemen, Persian gulf and Venezuela. Even controversial dispute among OPEC+ members over oil price has been placed behind the theatrical scenery of the present day COVID-19 drama, writes Alex Ivanov, Moscow correspondent.

Meanwhile, no lockdown is able to resolve old disputes and heal aching wounds of military confrontation. So, let’s have a look from Moscow at the current situation in the East of Ukraine where two breakaway territories, parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, declared independence in 2014. Unfortunately, when the conflict started, Kiyev had chosen military option to bring back the territories. As it is known the result was sad, thousands of victims from both sides, destruction of vital infrastructure and total blockade of Donetsk and Lughansk.

The Minsk-2 Protocol signed in February 2015 that was supposed to become the starting point for a lasting peaceful solution is still not implemented. All international efforts within the so called Normandy Format (France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia) have brought no result until now.

Some hopes were placed on the new Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky (pictured) when leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia gathered in December 2019 in Paris for the first in three years summit of the Normandy Four. The result of the meeting was rather promising and encouraging. It was said the Minsk agreements would remain the basis for negotiations. Ukrainian legislation should be changed, as agreed in the "Steinmeier formula". It defines the mechanism for putting into effect the law on a special order of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions on a temporary basis on election day and on a permanent basis after the publication of the OSCE report on their results.

Beside that the parties agreed to implement some measures. In particular, withdrawal of forces in three new points in Donbass by the end of March 2020. "We need to increase the number of checkpoints on the contact line. Let's not forget about the ordinary people who live there," Russian President Putin said. Additional steps should have included a complete cease-fire until the end of 2019. "The parties agreed on a ceasefire 20 times, but now we have agreed that we will take this seriously. Russia, having a great influence on the separatists, and we, Ukraine, will also influence and control this. I am sure that if all parties want it, it will also be implemented by the end of the year," Zelensky said.

It was also agreed to strengthen monitoring of compliance with the ceasefire regime through the expansion of the OSCE mandate.

The last point that was discussed and coordinated provided for the release of detained persons until 31 December 2019 on the principle of "all for all" and access to them by representatives of the International Red cross.

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As it was unanimously stated in Paris the next summit would be held in four months, i.e. in April 2020.

If we carefully look back on what have been done practically to implement all those positive intentions we’ll see that almost nothing. The only visible result was the exchange of prisoners of war that took place shortly before the New Year.

All other good intentions are waiting for the decision with very little hope for their implementation. The latest news news from Kiyev confirms these gloomy forecasts. The Ukrainian side has completely changed the negotiating team. They say in Kiev that they will negotiate and cooperate with those representatives of the territories that they will select themselves. Donetsk and Luhansk will not receive special status. Apart from this almost everyday we hear news about the ceasefire violations and new victims among civilians in both territories.

Last April Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that there were no conditions for conducting another Normandy Four summit.

“We will never agree on a new summit until all the decisions that were taken in Paris are honestly, fully and conscientiously implemented, and there is no other way to implement them except to behave correctly in the contact group and reach agreements with Donetsk and Luhansk. We will help together with the OSCE, " Lavrov said.

He called it a “difficult situation " that Kiyev is moving away from direct dialogue with Donetsk and Luhansk in the framework of the contact group, preferring that the "Normandy format" became the only channel of conversation on the Minsk agreements.

Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for Ukraine and two breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk? Given the position of Kiev, it is very difficult to make any forecasts. But for everyone, including the Ukrainians themselves, it is obvious that a way out must be found sooner or later.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author alone, and do not reflect EU Reporter's position.

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