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European Union must adapt to paradigm shift in the #MiddleEast

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Historical news, extraordinary development. Without doubt one of the main news this summer in the world: the decision of the United Arab Emirates, one of the most important Gulf state, to normalize its relations with the State of Israel, writes Yossi Lempkowicz, Senior Media Advisor Europe Israel Press Association (EIPA).
A decision that prefigures a complete change of attitude of the Arab countries towards Israel which is no longer seen as the enemy of the Arab world but on the contrary as an ally and partner in peace, security and economic development of the whole region.
Abu Dhabi became the third capital after Cairo and Amman to cross the Rubicon. Other countries are expected to follow. We are now talking about Oman, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco ... and why not Saudi Arabia. A normalization which illustrates the rise of a new generation of Arab leaders who have a different vision of the region.
This UAE-Israel agreement, obtained under the auspices of the Trump administration, deals an undoubtedly fatal blow to the dogma - widely held in Europe and elsewhere in the world - that the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a condition for a recognition of Israel by Arab countries. A concept which has allowed the Palestinian leadership to maintain over the years a negative attitude towards any attempt at negotiation with Israel. It should be a game changer.
One stone, two blows. In addition to the normalization of relations between the two countries and eventually the installation of reciprocal embassies and the launch of direct flights, the agreement also provides for an essential element for the Emirates: the specific acceptance by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the suspension of his  plan to extend Israeli sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank). A project that was nevertheless part of Netanyahu's electoral promises. "The priority is to expand the circle of peace," he told Abu Dhabi-based Sky News Arabia.
According to a Channel 12 poll, nearly 80% of Israelis prefer a normalization agreement with Arab countries to an extension of Israeli sovereignty.
‘’Delaying the annexation (of territories), or preferably cancelling it, will save Israel unnecessary political, security and economic costs and allow it to focus on the real national security challenges ahead: the economy, Covid -19, Iran, Hezbollah and Gaza,'' said Amos Yadlin, who heads the prestigious Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
There are two camps in the Middle East today. Those who oppose radical Islam, want to promote peace, stability and economic development in the region - including Israel and the UAE, other Gulf countries, but also Egypt, Jordan - and those who, like Iran and Turkey (along with Qatar), seek hegemonic and warlike domination of the region through their proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas and other Muslim Brotherhood. As in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza or Libya.
The agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel clearly marks a change in perception of the Jewish state in the Arab world. Israel is no longer seen by these countries as a threat but as a stabilizing force in a volatile and chaotic region. Israel is also a military, technological and economic power with which to cooperate.
“The clause (of the agreement) inviting every peace-loving Muslim to visit the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem signals to the Islamic world that the only road to Jerusalem is through peace with Israel,” writes Amos Yadlin.
“The Palestinians made the mistake of repeatedly condemning the ties forged over the years by their Arab brethren with Israel, preferring to hug false friends in Tehran and Ankara. In reality, it is the Palestinians who abandoned their Arab brothers in favor of foreign usurpers. Powerful Arab countries have had enough and choose to promote their national security interests without taking into account the moods of the Palestinians,’’ writes Dmitri Shfutinsky of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
Will the Europeans abandon their outdated conception of the Middle East peace process - more particularly the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - and understand the fact that this normalization agreement constitutes the prelude to a deep regional geopolitical evolution? A new paradigm.
Did EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell get it when he welcomed the normalization deal, while acknowledging the ‘’constructive role’’ played by the United States in this regard? Such normalization will benefit both countries and will constitute a "fundamental step for the stabilization of the entire region," he stressed. He also called Israel's commitment to suspend plans to extend sovereignty to part of the West Bank as "a positive step." A project that the Europeans had been trying for several months to convince Israel to abandon ... One less thorn in the complex relations between the EU and Israel.
After a phone conversation with Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, his German counterpart Heiko Maas, whose country currently holds the presidency of the European Union, said the normalization deal could provide a ‘'new momentum’’ towards peace in the region….
A message relayed by the head of French diplomacy Jean-Yves Le Drian who speaks of a "new state of mind" illustrated by these announcements which should allow the resumption of negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Now that the annexation project in the West Bank - the main stumbling block for the EU - has been frozen thanks to the agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, it is high time for the leaders of the European Union to take a decision. initiative to strengthen those in the Middle East who break taboos and seek to expand the circle of peace.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author alone, and do not reflect any opinions on the part of EU Reporter.

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#Nagorno-Karabakh - Presidents of the US, France and Russia call for an immediate cessation of violence

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In a joint statement on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh the Presidents of the United States, France and Russia condemned in the strongest terms the escalation of violence along the line of contact in the conflict zone. The leaders have called for an immediate cessation of violence. 

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group was established in 1992 to encourage a peaceful, negotiated resolution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.

The statement comes as a special European Council meets in Brussels to discuss taking a more strategic approach to relations with Turkey. Turkey has been accused of intervening in the conflict by the French President Emmanuel Macron.

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NATO brokers' de-confliction mechanism between Greece and Turkey

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Following a deterioration of relations in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly between Greece and Cyprus, NATO has just announced the creation of a bilateral military de-confliction mechanism.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has led a series of technical meetings between the military representatives of Greece and Turkey at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. The mechanism is designed to reduce the risk of incidents and accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean. It includes the creation of a hotline between Greece and Turkey, to facilitate de-confliction at sea or in the air.

Stoltenberg said, “I welcome the establishment of a military de-confliction mechanism, achieved through the constructive engagement of Greece and Turkey, both valued NATO Allies. This safety mechanism can help to create the space for diplomatic efforts to address the underlying dispute and we stand ready to develop it further. I will remain in close contact with both Allies.”

Military de-confliction between Allies is a role NATO has played before. In the 1990’s, NATO helped establish a similar mechanism in the region, which was effective in helping to reduce tensions and provide the space for broader diplomatic talks. 

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Armenia

Terror threat in South Caucasus can spread to Europe

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During the whole period of conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia the escalation has never reached to such critical point. Even in April 2016 when the Armenian side started massive operations against Azerbaijan, the two sides have never openly talked about a war so confidently. The army mobilization of both sides is an alarming fact that should be taken seriously by the international community.

International organization such as OSCE are failing to solve the problem by peaceful means which causes a decline in public trust in them. The Azerbaijani side openly claims that OCSE’s efforts are useless and highly non-effective -  writes Galib Mammadov, an independent expert and MA in International Relations from Washington University in St. Louis.

Even Azerbaijani government officials refer to photos of OCSE Minsk Group co-chairs having a party in Nagorno Karabakh instead of conducting conflict resolution and peacekeeping activities.1 This serves to public anger in Azerbaijani side and makes a war inevitable. On the other hand, any probability of war creates security issues for Armenia and as a last resort their government is aiming to use their relations with regional terror organizations such as ASALA (Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia) and PKK as a guarantee for their security. When going back to 70s, 80s and 90s, it becomes evident that Armenia has a tendency of collaborating with terror organizations and using them as a hard power for achieving their goals. Involvement of such organizations in the region is a huge threat for the whole World. Thus if they get reinforced in the region, they may get aligned with other terroristic agencies in the Middle East which would boost a global terror.

Brief Background of Nagorno Karabakh Conflict

Relations between two countries worsened after ethnic Armenia forces occupied Azerbaijani territories between the years of 1988 and 1994. Since the 1994 ceasefire, the Karabakh conflict has remained frozen despite international mediation. Armenia occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijani territories as a result of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, displacing approximately 800,000 Azerbaijanis from their territories. Additionally, the United Nations recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan Republic and has four resolutions that call on withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied districts of Azerbaijan.2

Background of ASALA’s Terror

Terrorist organizations like the ASALA and the armed wing of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) were one of the most dangerous terrorist movements in Europe during the early 1970s. ASALA launched in Lebanon Beirut in 1975 for the purpose of Approximately 90 individuals were killed and hundreds were wounded through a terrorist attack by these organizations. Such attacks covered North America, Europe, the Middle East and the south Pacific regions targeting ethnic Turks (mostly diplomats).3 But they also took lives of American, French, Italian and Yugoslav people. Taking into account the fact that, 1981 Armenian terrorists accounted for the highest number of documented international terrorist attacks, the U.S. government defined Armenian terrorists as the most dangerous group in the World at that time. 4

Major terror operations of ASALA were explosion at the Consulates General of the Republic of Turkey in the cities of Frankfurt, Cologne and Essen, Germany, explosion at Yeşilköy Airport in Istanbul, killing 5 and injuring 42, hostage crisis at Esenboga Airport in Ankara, killing 10 and injuring 82, explosion at an international trade fair in Marseilles, France, killing one and injuring 26, Explosion at the Turkish Airlines office at Orly airport in Paris, killing 8, and injuring 55. 5

Armenian political violence peaked between the fall of 1979 and the summer of 1983. By the end of July 1983, assassinations, armed assaults and bomb attacks took the lives of many Turkish Foreign Ministry officials, dependents and employees, as well as French, American, Italian, Yugoslav, Swiss and German nationals. The period was marked by the particularly brutal automatic weapon assaults at the Esenboğa Airport, the Istanbul Covered Bazaar, and Turkish Embassy and Ambassadorial Residence in Lisbon in the summers of 1982 and 1983, and the premature detonation of a bomb designed to explode in mid-air at the Orly Airport in Paris in July 1983. Eight people were killed, including four French citizens, two Turks, an American, and a Swedish, and close to sixty others were wounded.6 Former CIA director of counterterrorism commented the situation as following: “They [Armenians]’re brutal… They don’t take hostages to negotiate. It’s just out-and-out murder.” 7 Armenian terror was a nightmare for both Europeans and Americans and ASALA was a unique case that shall not be forgotten as a lesson by International community.

Armenia – ASALA relations

Armenia’s prior president Ter-Petrosyan attended ASALA member’s Monte Melkonian's funeral in 1993. It clearly means ASALA regarded as a legitimate entity in Armenia. Armenia showed their support to terrorist organization which took lives of many people all around the World. In addition, Members of ASALA are officially regarded as national heroes. Thus, after death Monte Melkonian was awarded with the highest military honors of Nagorno Karabagh and the Republic of Armenia, including the Military Cross, First Degree and the Golden Eagle medal.8 Armenia openly promotes terror activities and gives legitimacy to such actions. That shall be an alarm not just for the region, also for the whole World. Thus, terror operations of ASALA affected not just Turks and Azerbaijani people in the region, also affected Europe and the United States of America taking lives of many people.

In addition, according to legitimate Armenian media sources Armenian government started a program on settlement of Lebanese Armenians to occupied territories of Azerbaijan. In august 2020 Armenian media declared two Lebanese-Armenian families move to Nagorno-Karabakh.9 In September 2020 the number reached to one hundred people.10 Armenian sources describe such settlement as humanitarian help to Lebanese Armenians regarding the catastrophe happened in Beirut. On the contrary Azerbaijani sources recall it as an intentional provocation aiming settle terrorist to Karabakh and revive so-called ASALA terror organization which was a nightmare for Europe. According to Azerbaijani sources director of Russia’s Political Researches Institute, philologist Sergey Markov in his interview with APA’s Moscow correspondent called Armenia’s actions as an attempt to a terror by saying “Through Pashinyan’s deeds, terror experience in Middle East may spread to the South Caucasus”. 11 Another Russian expert Andrey Petrov in his statement to APA’s Moscow correspondent alarmed Russian government about danger of terror: “By deploying terrorists to Azerbaijan’s occupied territories, Armenia creates great problem for Russia”. 12Armenia’s policies for achieving of its goals by means of terror and war would jeopardize peace not just in the region also in Europe.

Conclusion

Both Armenia’s respect to country’s terrorist leaders in government level and its settlement plan regarding Armenians of Lebanon gives a basis to build a hypothesis that Armenia is aiming to revive its historical terror organizations like ASALA. International community shall use its all means (sanctions, notes and etc.) to prevent Armenia using a terrorism as a tool for their political goals, like they did in 70s, 80s, and 90s. Deployment of terrorist groups like PKK and ASALA to Nagorno Karabakh and other occupied territories of Azerbaijan, will take lives not just Azerbaijani or Turkish people, also, European, American, Russian and even Armenian people may be victims of their operations like it happened in the near history. The message shall be clear that any goal shall not be achieved by assault, terror, assassinations and massacres. If Such organizations succeed, it will motivate many other terror organizations to act which will jeopardize global peace and security. Sanctions and relevant measures by international community shall be imposed to any government that supports act of terror.

The opinions contained in this article are personal to the author.

2 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2008/ga10693.doc.htm

3 Gunter M.M. (2011) Armenian Terrorism in the Twentieth Century. In: Armenian History and the Question of Genocide. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230118874_3

4 “Armenian Terrorists,” January 10, 1983, CIA, CIA-RDP88-01070R000100520004-4; “Patterns of International Terrorism: 1981,” in Department of State Bulletin Vol. 82, No. 2065 (August 1982): 16; and Gunter, “Pursuing the Just Cause of their People”

5 Christopher Gunn (2014) Secret Armies and Revolutionary Federations: The Rise and Fall of Armenian Political Violence, 1973-1993

6 ABC News, July 15, 1983; Greg MacArthur, AP, Paris, July 15, 1983; “5 Killed, 60 Hurt by Paris Bomb; Armenian Extremists Take Blame,” Los Angeles Times, July 15, 1983; Peggy Turbett, UPI, Paris, July 15, 1983; Brigid Phillips, UPI, Paris, July 15, 1983; “5 Killed in Orly Airport Bombing; Armenians Claim Responsibility,” New York Times, July 16, 1983; “A Long History of Vengeance,” NYT, July 16, 1983; “Armenian Blast Kills 5m Hurts 56 at Paris Airport,” LAT, July 16, 1983; Claire Rosemberg, “American student killed in bomb explosion,” UPI, Paris, July 16, 1983; UPI, Paris, July 16, 1983; Greg MacArthur, AP, Paris, July 16, 1983; “Armenians Claim More Victims,” NYT, July 17, 1983; “Death Toll Climbs to 6 in Orly Bombing,” NYT, July 17, 1983; “American Among Dead in Orly Blast,” Washington Post, July 17, 1983; “Turkish Press Review: July 16-18, 1983,” ANKARA 06192, July 18, 1983, DOS; “Orly Blast Claims Seventh Victim, New Threats,” Associated Press, July 21, 1983; Death Toll Rises to 7 After Terror at Orly,” NYT, July 22, 1983; “ASALA Bombing of Orly Airport Takes Heavy Toll; Paris Police, in Major Sweep, Detain Over 50 Suspects,” Armenian Reporter, July 21, 1983; and “ASALA-planned blast at France’s Orly Airport,” Armenian Weekly, July 23, 1983

7 “Terrorist Group Baffles Experts in Armenian Tactics,” Washington Post, July 26, 1983

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